Given a statistical application, determine the reference class and evaluate the argument's strength/weakness: how likely is the conclusion given the premises and how relevant is the reference class to the conclusion?

1.) 99% of what Sarah says is true. Sarah said that it's going to be a rainier spring than normal. Thus, we can expect a lot more rain than usual this spring. 2.)Seven percent of philosophers who enjoy Jameson are Bayesians. Ted is a philosopher with a who enjoys Jameson. Hence, Ted is not a Bayesian.