1. Golden West Homes is developing a new modular home model. The following table outlines the activities of the project. Times are expressed in days.

Activity	Immediate Predecessors	Optimistic Time	Most Likely Times	Pessimistic Time	Expected Cost
A. Conduct a focus group	-	14	20	32	$4,000
B. Determine key features/options	A	6	8	10	$3,000
C. Set out design specifications	B	2	4	12	$2,000
D. Draw up blueprints	C	5	6	7	$7,000
E. Determine heating requirements	D	2	2	2	$1,000
F. Select appointments	C	3	3	9	$800
G. Arrange financing	D	4	11	12	$7,000
H. Plan marketing campaign	C	3	4	5	$4,000
I. Develop manufacturing specifications	E	2	5	14	$8,000
J. Obtain material for prototype	E, F	20	35	38	$600
K. Train workers	I	8	19	24	$7,200
L. Build prototype	J, K	10	12	14	$11,000
M. Determine selling prices	E, F	1	1	1	$900
N. Hold dealer meetings	L, M	3	5	7	$5,400
O. Prepare advertising literature	H, L, M	7	13	13	$6,200
P. Solicit initial orders	N	15	17	31	$800
Q. Determine order quantities	F	1	2	3	$400
R. Obtain materials	N, Q	14	26	32	$0
S. Schedule production	P	1	1	1	$150

1. Draw the project network. Fill in all the expected activity time, earliest start (ES), earliest finish (EF), latest start (LS), and latest finish (LF) times. Also calculate variance of all activity times and write them above or below their node (box) on your graph. Show your work on how you calculated these 6 numbers for projects O and R only. (You are allowed to do the drawing by hand, but it should be clean and legible, on a standard printer paper).
2. Determine the expected completion time and the critical path for this project.
3. Because of production considerations, Golden West will lose $10,000 if this project is not completed within 114 days. What is the probability that the project will be completed within 114 days?
4. What is the probability of completing the project in 118 days?