Question: Good Choice Ltd. is considering service construction projects. These include theme park, outlet shopping mall, distribution centre, museum and office building. The financial success of
Good Choice Ltd. is considering service construction projects. These include theme park, outlet shopping mall, distribution centre, museum and office building. The financial success of these project depends on the interest rate movement in the next 8 years. It is foreseeable that the future interest rate may increase, remain stable or decline. The table below shows their 8-year financial return (in million) under each state of nature.
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| Interest Rate | ||
| Project | Increase | Stable | Decline |
| Theme park | $5.2 | $2.1 | $1.3 |
| Outlet shopping mall | $2.3 | $1.5 | $1.8 |
| Distribution centre | $3.1 | $2.7 | $1.2 |
| Museum | $2.8 | $2.3 | $1.4 |
| Office building | $0.8 | $1.5 | $4.2 |
- Determine the best investment using Maximin strategy. (3 marks)
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- Construct an opportunity loss table and determine the best investment using Minimax Regret strategy. (4 marks)
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- Suppose the probabilities of increase, remain stable and decline of interest rate are 34%, 29% and 37% respectively, suggest which project would you choose by using expected value (EV) as the decision criterion? Show your calculation steps. (3 marks)
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Following (c), the manager stated that It is worth to pay $1.5millions for the perfect information as the company can earn more by making this decision. Comment on the statement and justify if you agree with the decision of the manager.
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