Grading Rubric Average Points Points Possible Eamed Comments 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Day 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Part 1: Fill in the pink cells with forecasts. Round off to two decimal points. 3 Period 5 period Exponential Exponential Moving moving Smoothing Smoothing PART 1 Demand average alpha = .1 Alpha=.4 Day 1 2690.00 Part 1 Day 2 2700.00 3 pd MA Day 3 2750.00 5 pd MA Day 4 2690.00 ES a=.1 2780.00 ES a-.4 Day 6 2530.00 Part 2 Day 7 2660.00 CFE Day 8 2520.00 MAD Day 9 2540.00 MSE Day 10 2600.00 MAPE Day 11 2640.00 Part 3 Day 12 Q1 Q2 Q3 Part 2: Fill in the yellow cells with measure of forecast error. Round off to two decimal places TOTAL You may find it helpful to use the orange cells for intermediate calculations. Don't round off intermediate values in final calculations. Period Demand Forecast Error Abs Error Errom 2 absen/demand 1 10316.00 10300.00 2 12443.00 10565.00 3 11717.00 10562.00 4 11035.00 10755.00 5 12173.00 11377.75 6 11015.00 11842.00 7 11039.00 11485.00 8 11934.00 11315.50 9 11694.00 11540.25 10 10420.00 11420.50 8 8 8 100 81 8 8 100 Forecast CFE MAD MSE MAPE Part 3: Answer the questions below (forecast errors below are based on different data than that shown above) Forecast A Forecast B Forecast C CFE 22 -2.2 15 MAD 11.5 14.5 12.6 MSE 177 149 -156 MAPE 0.11 0.21 0.16 Question 1: Which measure of forecast error is incorrect. Identify the mistake by indicating both the measure of forecast error and the specific forecast (A, B, or C) in the green box Question 2: Which forecast (A, B, or C) has the largest squared errors? Identify the error type (e.g. CFE, MAD, MSE, MAPE) and the Forecast (e.g. A, B, C) -- in the green box. Question 3: Which forecast (A, B, or C) is the least 'biased'? Identify the error type (e.g. CFE, MAD, MSE, MAPE) and the Forecast (e.g. A, B, C) -- in the green box