HANDWRITTEN SOLUTION ONLY. PLEASE DON'T USE EXCEL

HANDWRITTEN SOLUTION ONLY. PLEASE DON'T USE EXCEL

HANDWRITTEN SOLUTION ONLY. PLEASE DON'T USE EXCEL

Q3. The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, which it makes in a small plant in back of the cafe. People drive long distances to buy the ice cream. The two ladies who own the caf want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production operation and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the caf. They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters. Year Quarter 1 Sales (litres) 350 2018 2 3 510 750 4. 420 1 1 370 2019 2 3 480 860 4. 500 2020 2 3 550 820 4 570 450 = (a) What is the forecast for 2018 quarters 2, 3 and 4 if exponential smoothing with a = 0.5 is used and the forecast for 2018 quarter 1 was 350? (3 marks) (b) What is the forecast for 2019 quarters 1 and 2 if Holt's method with a = 0.5 and = 0.5 is used. (8 marks) (C) Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for each quarter in 2021. (hint: use a linear trend line model to develop a forecast estimate for 2021 using the 3 years (3 data points), you can do thi (10 marks)