Heath Co is a manufacturing company that produces a line of skiwear that is sold under various
Question:
Heath Co is a manufacturing company that produces a line of skiwear that is sold under various brand names. The Product Manager of Heath Co has contracted with you to develop a model to forecast company sales. You will be supplied with quarterly sales data from 2007 through 2016. They want a model that will allow them to forecast sales one year (four quarters) out.Develop and interpret models using the methods below.
Use the data from the years 2007 to 2015 to develop models. Evaluate the fit of your models to the data series used to create the model. Reserve 2016 data as a holdout to evaluate the accuracy of your models.
•Trend Regression
show detailed forecasting model runs, and summary report of your findings You will submit a single Excel workbook with all relevant sheets. The first sheet in your workbook will be an answer sheet with clearly labeled answers to all questions and a guide to sheets where supporting Excel information can be found.
Completed Answer sheet
Based on a review of the model fit graph in ForecastX, do the model results show asimilar trend to the trend of data series? Explain your answer.
Based on a review of the model fit graph in ForecastX, do the model results show asimilar seasonal pattern to the seasonal pattern of data series? Explain your answer.
Write a brief description of the model fit using the ForecastX MAPE and RMSE output.Include the values of the MAPE and RMSE measures in your description. Calculate the MAPE and RMSE model accuracy using the four quarters of holdout data and the forecasts for the same four quarters in the ForecastX output.
Write a brief description of the model accuracy. Include the values of the MAPE andRMSE measures in your description.
PeriodSalesMar-0772962Jun-0781921Sep-0797729Dec-07142161Mar-08145592Jun-08117129Sep-08114159Dec-08151402Mar-09153907Jun-09100144Sep-09123242Dec-09128497Mar-10176076Jun-10180440Sep-10162665Dec-10220818Mar-11202415Jun-11211780Sep-11163710Dec-11200135Mar-12174200Jun-12182556Sep-12198990Dec-12243700Mar-13253142Jun-13218755Sep-13225422Dec-13253653Mar-14257156Jun-14202568Sep-14224482Dec-14229879Mar-15289321Jun-15266095Sep-15262938Dec-15322052Mar-16313769Jun-16315011Sep-16264939Dec-16301479
Business Forecasting with Forecast X
ISBN: 978-0073373645
6th edition
Authors: Holton wilson, barry keating, john solutions inc