Question: Hello! can you please help me solve the following problem? 2. You want to forecast the index of industrial production (IPt). Hence, you define yt

Hello! can you please help me solve the following problem?

2. You want to forecast the index of industrial production (IPt). Hence, you define yt = 1200 . In IP: ), and estimate an AR(4) model on 492 monthly observations. You obtain the following IPt-1 parameter estimates and t-statistics (given in parentheses): yt = 1.377 + 0.318 yt_1 + 0.123 yt-2 + 0.068 yt-3 + 0.001 yt-4. (22.210) (4.077) (2.236) (1.021) (0.018) Moreover, you have gathered the following values of IP from July 2018 to December 2018: Date Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 IP 147.595 148.650 148.973 148.660 148.206 147.300 Forecast the value of yt in January 2019. (15 points)

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