Hello, I am doing an investigation in math concerning probability. It is related to the 2026 world cup under the new format which investigates the probablity of match fixing. The format consists of a group of three teams who each play each other once. The two teams with the most points qualify to the next round. It is 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss. If teams are tied on points, goal difference is the next tiebreaker. Team A plays Team B in matchday 1, Team A plays Team C in matchday two and finally Team B plays Team C in the final matchday.

What are the scenario's in which both team B and Team C on the final matchday have a result which will allow them both to qualify at the expense of team A and how can i workout the probablity of these scenarios arising? For the sake of simplicity, I will assume that all the teams in question are equally good and that the competetive balance is perfect. Here is a link that i believe would prove helpful, however i don't understand their equations but i hope it could be understandable to you. https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200414