Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product:

Harlen Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this year, which are shown below along with the actual demand that occurred. The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred:

WEEK	FORECAST DEMAND	ACTUAL DEMAND
1	132	129
2	133	125
3	133	140
4	135	150
5	135	170
6	145	160
7	142	175
8	155	195

a. Compute the MAD of forecast errors. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

b. Using the RSFE, compute the tracking signal. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places. Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign.)

c. Based on your answers to parts a and b, comment on Harlens method of forecasting.

multiple choice

• The forecast should be considered poor.

• The forecast should be considered good.

Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Solve the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)