Homework 11 (Forecasting - Chapter 18) (80 pts) 1. The demand for authentic Patrick Kane jerseys over the past three months has been: Three months ago Two months ago Last month 34,534 jerseys 27,983 jerseys 25,751 jerseys a. Using a simple three-month moving average, provide a forecast for this month. (10 pts) b. If 24,231 units were ACTUALLY demanded this month, what would your forecast be for NEXT month? (10 pts)(HINT: we're still in a 3-month moving average, not 4...) c. Using simple exponential smoothing, what would your forecast be for this month if the exponentially smoothed forecast for three months ago was 38,851 jerseys and the smoothing constant was 0.20? (20 pts) (HINT: Calculate the ESF for 2 months ago and last month to assist in calculating this month's forecast) 2. Dave used his top-secret forecasting method to provide a forecast for the first six months of the year. Take a look at forecasted and actual demands below: January February March April May June Forecasted 500 625 700 650 675 725 Actual Demand 400 530 610 600 630 680 a. Find the MAD and the Tracking Signal (provide math or Excel file) (30 pts) b. Based on the Tracking Signal, tell me if you think Dave's top secret method is accurate and WHY. (10 pts)