Homework: M3 Assignment 1

The last two questions have 2 choices:

a. exponential smoothing (a=0.4) b. trend projection with regression

Homework: M3 Assignment 1 Save Score: 2.5 of 10 pts 1 of 3 (1 complete) HW Score: 6.25%, 2.5 of 40 ... %x Problem 10 Question Help A convenience store recently started to carry a new brand of soft drink. Management is interested in estimating future sales volume to determine whether it should continue to carry the new brand or replace it with another brand. The following table provides the number of cans sold per week. Use both the trend projection with regression and the exponential smoothing (let a=0.4 with an initial forecast for week 1 of 582) methods to forecast demand for week 13. Compare these methods by using the mean absolute deviation and mean absolute percent error performance criteria. Does your analysis suggest that sales are trending and if so, by how much? 9 Period Sales 1 582 2 636 3 648 4 735 5 664 6 636 7 739 8 718 10 719 12 750 771 657 (1) Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast. The forecast for week 13 is (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) Specify the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE). (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) MAD 37.00 MAPE 5.49% (ii) Obtain the exponential smoothing forecast. The forecast for week 13 is 705'. (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) Specify the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE). (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) MAD 48.91 MAPE 6.79% Based on MAD, the best method is trend projection with regression. Based on MAPE, the best method is trend projection with regression