Question: How do I derive the unshifted beta geometric model, P(t|a,b), (t|a,b) and the forward recursion P(t|a,b) Theta is the churn

How do I derive the unshifted beta geometric model, P(t|a,b), (t|a,b) and the forward recursion P(t|a,b)

Theta is the churn

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