How do I use the data provided to create a performance evaluation bias and graphic evaluation?

Using the 3 techniques to forecast the future of the baht Fundamental forecasting Market-based forecasting Technical forecasting including the performance evaluation bias and its graphic evaluation.

Beginning baht is .023

Value of

-6.85 depreciation

Fundamental forecast for 90 days

$.023 x (1-.0685) = $.0214

Absolute forecast errors percentage if the baht was .022 at the end of 90 days

Technical ($.02162 - $.022)/$.022 = 1.73%

Fundamental ($.0214 - $.022)/$.022 = 2.73%

Market-based ($.021 - $.022)/.022 = 4.54%

Here is the data we were presented with in creating these forecasts:

The technical forecast indicates a depreciation of the baht by 6 percent over the next quarter from the baht’s current level of $.023 to $.02162. He has also conducted a fundamental forecast of the baht-dollar exchange rate using historical inflation and interest rate data. The fundamental forecast, however, depends on what happens to Thai interest rates during the next quarter and therefore reflects a probability distribution. Based on the inflation and interest rates, there is a 30 percent chance that the baht will depreciate by 2 percent, a 15 percent chance that the baht will depreciate by 5 percent, and a 55 percent chance that the baht will depreciate by 10 percent.