https://www.coursehero.com/file/10469594/Homework-Slides-65-68/?justUnlocked=1#/quiz

1.

Using the Data in the table, compute the centered moving

averages. What is the benefit derived from obtaining these

moving averages?

2.

Compute the seasonal indexes for each month. When does the

Water Department experience the larges seasonal effect? Does

this seem reasonable? Does there seem to be a seasonal

pattern?

3.

Deseasonalize the data and use the deseasonalized time series to

determine the linear trend equation. What is the average

increase in water use per month? How far into the future do you

think the trend could be projected?

4.

Assuming a multiplicative model, obtain the cyclical

components. Does there seem to be a cyclical pattern?

5.

forecast water use in Fort Worth for the last

three months of 2006 and the first month of 2007 using

only

the trend equation. Use the seasonal indexes to adjust the

deseasonalized forecasts.

6.

In January 2007, the actual water use turned out to be 325.6.

Discuss the forecasting error encountered here.