Hubbard starts chapter 6 by saying "...We've defined the difference between uncertainty and risk. Initially, quantifying risk is just a matter of putting our calibrated ranges or probabilities on unknown variables. Subsequent measurements reduce uncertainty about the quantity and, in addition, quantify the new state of uncertainty." This means that the "base-case" for our AIE projects can be obtained by providing "calibrated" ranges or probabilities. But, what are calibrated ranges and/or probabilities? After you take the test in chapter 5, share whether you are calibrated. Discuss