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CASE STUDY $1$

MBA $6050$: QUANTITATIVE REASONING AND ANALYSIS SUMMER $2024($Online$)$

PROBLEM DESCRIPTION:

As with most financial institutions, Foggyview Credit Union is very concerned with the cost of short term borrowing. AMERIBOR $($or the American Interbank Offered Rate$)$ is a new interest rate benchmark that reflects the actual unsecured borrowing costs of banks and financial institutions. It is an interest rate that is based on transactions of overnight unsecured loans and it measures the true cost of short$-$term interbank borrowing.

The Excel data set named "AMERIBOR Project Data" provides daily values starting on March $22,2018($in the first column this is designated as $2018-03-22)$ through May $16,2024($or $2024-05-16).$ The variable TREND simply indicates the day number in the data set and this shows there are $2105$ daily observations. In addition to the first task, Foggyview Credit Union has become aware that you have training in forecasting. They would like you to forecast values of the AMERIBOR for the next $30$ days.

The table below provides a portion of the data set:

$\backslash$table$[[$Year$-$Month$-$Day,AMERIBOR,TREND$],[2018-03-22,1\mathrm{.}7968,1],[2018-03-23,1\mathrm{.}8043,2],[2018-03-26,1\mathrm{.}8140,3],[2018-03-27,1\mathrm{.}8196,4],[,,],[,,],[2024-05-13,5\mathrm{.}4513,2102],[2024-05-14,5\mathrm{.}4693,2103],[2024-05-15,5\mathrm{.}4654,2104],[2024-05-16,5\mathrm{.}4629,2105]]$

MANAGERIAL REPORT: Utilize the forecasting techniques discussed in lectures to provide the forecast requested. At a minimum, your report should include the following:

A discussion of the data as well as an overall discussion of the forecasting techniques utilized as well as how you selected your optimal model.

A tabular presentation of the forecast and a discussion of the results.

The report may include graphs and illustration, but not any Excel or Megastat output