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CLINE exponential smoothing with a -5 initial forecast -20) b) Compute the MAD c) Compute the tracking signal. x CASE STUDIES Southwestern University: (B)* Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20.000 students. The school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents Always a football powerhouse, SWU is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. Since the legendary Phil Flamm was hired as its head coach in 2009 in hopes of reaching the elusive number ranking). attendance at the five Saturday home games each vear increased. Prior to Flamm's arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29.000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up hv 10.000 iust with the announcement of the new coach s arrival Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time! Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2010-2015 2010 2011 GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT ATTENDEES OPPONENT 34,200 Rice 36,100 Miami 39,800 Texas 40,200 Nebraska 38,200 Duke 39,100 Ohio State 26,900 Arkansas 25,300 Nevada 35,100 TCU 36,200 Boise State 2012 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 35,900 USC 46,500 Texas Tech 43,100 Alaska 27,900 Arizona 39,200 Baylor GAME 2013 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 41,900 Arkansas 46,100 Missouri 43,900 Florida 30,100 Central Florida 40,500 LSU - 2014 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 42.500 Indiana 48,200 North Texas 44,200 Texas A&M 33,900 Southern 2015 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 46,900 ISU 50.100 Texas 45,900 South Florida 36,300 Montana 47,800 Oklahoma 49,900 Arizona State un Homecoming games. During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts fes- tival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance. 192 PART 1 INTRODUCTION TO OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Discussion Questions 1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2017 2. What revenues are to be expected in 2016 and 2017? 3. Discuss the school's options. The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54.000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past 6 years. One of Flamm's demands upon joining SWU had been a sta- dium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Flamm had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the sta- dium as an additional feature of any expansion. SWU's president, Dr. Joel Wisner, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would "max out." The expansion was, in his mind, a given. But Wisner needed to know how long he could wait. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $50 in 2016 and a 5% increase each year in future prices. *This integrated case study runs throughout the text. Other issues fac- ing Southwestern's football stadium include (A) managing the stadium project (Chapter 3); (C) quality of facilities (Chapter 6); (D) break-even analysis of food services (Supplement 7 Web site); (E) locating the new stadium (Chapter 8 Web site); (F) inventory planning of football programs (Chapter 12 Web site), and (G) scheduling of campus security officers/staff for game days (Chapter 13 Web site)