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Question 1

Given the quarterly sales data for a particular brand of sports shoes at a sporting goods store shown below:

Year	Quarter	Total Sales
1	2	3	4
1	4	2	1	5	12
2	6	4	4	14	28
3	10	3	5	16	34
4	12	9	7	22	50
5	18	10	13	35	76

(a) Develop a four-period moving average model and compute MSE for your forecasts. Provide the relevant screenshots of the Excel spreadsheet. (10 marks)

(b) Find a good value of for a single exponential smoothing model and compare your results to part (a). (15 marks)

(c) The store manager asks you whether to use time-series or regression-based forecasting models. Illustrate the key similarities and differences between these two methods. (15 marks)

[Note: Your write up for Q1, excluding figures/tables/calculations, should not exceed 300 words.]