If a simple moving average is used to forecast period $8($reference figure below$).$ Which of the following is true if the downward trend continues in period $8?($If you can't see the picture for some reason, there is a dowmward trend in Demand over T periods$)$

r forecast will most likely exceed the actual demand

would need to increase your forecast based on a judgmental method of adjustment

forecast will most likely be less than the actual demand

precast error will be constant