If we are going to use data from this year to predict unemployment next year, why not use this year's unemployment to predict next year's unemployment? A model like this, in which previous values of a variable are used to predict future values of the same variable, is called an autoregressive model. The following table presents the data needed to fit this model. This Year's Next Year's This Year's Next Year's Year Unemployment Unemployment Year Unemployment Unemployment 1991 6.8 7.5 2005 5.1 4.6 1992 7.5 6.9 2006 4.6 4.6 1993 6.9 6.1 2007 4.6 5.8 1994 6.1 5.6 2008 5.8 9.3 1995 5.6 5.4 2009 93 9.6 1996 5.4 4.9 2010 9.6 8.9 1997 4.9 4.5 2011 8.9 8.1 1998 4.5 4.2 2012 8.1 7.4 1999 4.2 4.0 2013 7.4 6.2 2000 4.0 4.7 2014 6.2 5.3 2001 4.7 5.8 2015 5.3 4.9 2002 5.8 6.0 2016 4.9 4.4 2003 6.0 5.5 2017 4.4 3.9 2004 5.5 5.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 10. Compute the least-squares line for predicting next year's unemployment from this year's unemployment. 11. Predict next year's unemployment if this year's unemployment is 4.0%. 12. Compute the correlation coefficient between this year's unemployment and next year's unemployment