II. Forecasting (25 points) We could not possibly finish this class without going back to our Pottery Company example. So, here we are again with mugs and bowls. Alejandra Yang is the commercial director at the Pottery Company. She needs to estimate the demand of mugs and bowls for the next month. Alejandra assigns you, the new management science analyst, to find the best forecast for each of these two products, and gives you data from the past 24 months. You want to make sure to present a top- notch forecast, so you will test the following models: A three-month moving average. Two different combinations of weighted moving averages (50%-30%-20% and 60%- 30%-10%). Two exponential smoothing models (alpha=0.3 and alpha=0.5). Develop the required forecast models (five models for each product) and provide the best forecast for each product in month 25. Mugs Bowls Month Mugs Bowls Month (thousands) (thousands) (thousands) (thousands) 1 1,020 777 1,674 1,024 2 640 477 14 1,925 314 419 190 1,826 309 4 855 647 16 1,748 689 5 1,435 195 17 1,822 1,201 1,148 630 2,380 397 7 1,112 339 1,935 1,177 1,755 993 20 2,779 1,323 1,164 361 21 2,474 1,027 10 1,087 438 22 3,036 11 1,687 902 23 2,864 849 12 2,150 991 3,179 1,345 13 3 15 6 18 19 8 9 884 24