In Class Exercise $-$ Demand Forecasting $2$

You are responsible for forecasting the demand for a product. The demand each week for $10$ weeks is shown below.

$\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{|$c$|$c$|$c$|$c$|\}$

$\backslash$hline Period & Demand & $\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{$c$\}$

Moving Average $\backslash \backslash$

Forecast

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}$ & $\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{$c$\}$

Exponential Smoothing $\backslash \backslash$

Forecast

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1$ & $144$ & $-$ & $-\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $2$ & $148$ & $-$ & $144\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $3$ & $145$ & $-$ & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $4$ & $147$ & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $5$ & $150$ & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $6$ & $149$ & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $7$ & $153$ & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $8$ & $147$ & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $10$ & $155$ & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $9$ & & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $6$ & & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}$

$1)$ Develop a $3$ period Moving Average Forecast

$2)$ Develop an Exponential Smoothing Forecast with alpha $\backslash (=0\mathrm{.}2\backslash )$

$3)$ Based only on periods $8-10,$ calculate the mean forecast error for both forecasts

$4)$ Which forecast performed better? Why?