In Excel, using a line chart, plot the historical data for each of the $5$ items

given. What does it tell you?

Using the unemployment rate for the entire period, copy the demand into the moving

average template. Determine the moving average for $2,4$ and $6$ months. Determine

the MAD, MSE and MAPE by copying and pasting the actual and forecast numbers into

the Accuracy worksheet.

a$.$ What is the MAD, MSE and MI$,[$Milk$,,,,],[$Unemployment$,,,,],[$Bricks$,,,,],[$Passengers$,,,,]]$APE for a $2,4,$ and $6$ month moving average.

b$.$ Which moving average would you use to forecast?

c$.$ What happens to the forecast accuracy when you use exponential smoothing

with an alpha of $\mathrm{.}3,\mathrm{.}5$ and $\mathrm{.}7$ what is the MAD, MSE and MAPE for each alpha

d$.$ Is the forecast better or worse? Which forecast would you use now?

e$.$ Determining the forecast using a weighted moving average using the weights of

$\mathrm{.}15,\mathrm{.}25,\mathrm{.}25,$ and $\mathrm{.}35$

f$.$ What happens to the forecast accuracy?

g$.$ what is the MAD, MSE and MAPE for each alpha $?$

h$.$ What happens to the forecast accuracy when you use the linear trend model?

i$.$ What model would you recommend based on all your analysis? Why?