Include a time series plot for each question from Excel

For problems #1 and #2: be sure to compare the accuracy of the different forecasting models by calculating the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Mean Squared Error (MSE) for each forecast model and state which model is the better predictor. Explain your decision.

Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Overholt Supply Co. over the past 13 months were as follows:

	Sales		Sales
Month	(thousands)	Month	(thousands)
January	9	August	12
February	12	September	15
March	14	October	10
April	8	November	12
May	13	December	14
June	15	January	9
July	9

a. Develop a four period moving averages to forecast the sales for each month. What is the forecast for February?

b. Using a three-period weighted moving average with weights 3, 2, and 1 (3= most recent) forecast the sales for each week. What is the forecast for February?

c. Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.6. Forecast the sales for each week. What is the forecast for February?

d. Which model is the most accurate? Compare each models MAD, MSE, and MAPE values.