Insert Format Arrange Tools Slide Show Window Help

cdots

EnvGeolWeek$1$ Meh $-$ Saved $$

sitions Animations Slide Show Review View Record $?$ Tell me

Comm

ial

$16$

$A^{{?}^{{?}^{?}}}{A}^N|A_8|$

Shapes

Aa

Q $A$

Convert to

Text Box

Arrange

Understanding risk $($we will go through the needed Excel sheet in class$).$

Please download and open the companion Excel sheet entitled "ProbabilityRiskExerciseV$2"($available in the Files section of the Canvas course site$).$ Start with the sheet titled probability $($see screen capture to the right$)$ and please read the explanation in the yellow text box. Then answer these questions.

a$)$ For a yearly probability input of $2\%$ what is the ~~ range $($highest minus lowest value$)$ for the percentage of $20$ people that see that size flood in a $20$ vear time span? You will need to 'run' the model several ~~$10$ times to get a range.

b$)$ If the flooding probability of that size is based on historic data $($e$.$g$.$ from the past $50$ years$)$ analyzed for a mathematical relationship, what is the basic assumption that you are making in projecting into the future $($read this question carefully$).$

c$)$ In what ways may that basic assumption be compromised or invalidated?

These tabs will switch you between the two sheets you will need to use $-$ start with "Probability"$/$