IS has using in villing to TABLE 7-4 Monthly Demand for ABC Corporation and MSE Evaluate the quality of the Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 phase January 2,000 3,000 Year 4 MA or 2,000 Year 5 5,000 sults. February 3,000 4,000 5,000 5,000 3,000 4.000 March 3,000 5,000 2,000 a, the 5,000 is due April 3,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 May 4,000 5,000 2,000 4,000 5,000 7,000 uous June 6,000 8,000 6,000 7,000 tools 6,000 7,000 3,000 LOP July 7,000 10,000 8,000 August 6,000 8,000 10,000 14,000 10,000 10,000 12,000 15,000 16,000 20,000 the September 12,000 12,000 15,000 16,000 20,000 The October 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 ent November 14,000 8,000 10,000 8,000 12,000 8,000 al December 115,000 113,000 a 89,000 98,000 Total 78,000 with a = 0.1 and B = 0.1. Which of 2. Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as shown. Estimate you prefer? Why? demand for the next 4 weeks using a 4-week moving average as well as sin ntial smoothing with a = 0.1. Quarter234 Chapter 7 . Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain 4. Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporation as shown in Table 7-3. Forecast the monthly demand for Year 6 using moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt's model, and Winter's model. In each case, evaluate the bias, TS, MAD, MAPE, and MSE. Which forecasting method do you prefer? Why? 5. For the Hot Pizza data in Exercise 2, compare the performance of simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.1 and a = 0.9. What difference in forecasts do you observe? Which of the two smoothing constants do you prefer? 6. Monthly demand at A&D Electronics for flat-screen TVs are as shown. Estimate demand for the next two months using simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.3 and 9. Quar Holt's model with a = 0.05 and B = 0.1. For the simple Afte fact