It is forecasting techniques applied to subjective nature demand values.

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A2 = aD2 +(1-a)(Al+T1) = 0.5(40)+(1-0.5)(37+0) = 38.5, and T2 = B(A2-A1)+(1-6)T1 =0.3(38.5-37)+ (1 -0.3)(0) = 0.45. F3 = A2 + T2 = 38.5+ 0.45 = 38.95. Expon. Smooth.. Trend-Adjusted Expon. Smooth. (a=0.5, B = 0.3) Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Month Jan Feb Mar Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan Demand 37 40 41 37 45 50 43 47 56 52 55 54 ? a=0.5 37.00 37.00 38.50 39.75 38.38 41.69 45.84 44.42 45.71 50.86 51.43 53.21 53.61 At 37.00 38.50 39.98 38.87 42.03 46.56 45.84 47.05 52.15 53.28 55.15 55.56 Tt 0.00 0.45 0.76 0.20 1.09 2.12 1.27 1.25 2.41 2.02 1.98 1.51 Ft 37.00 37.00 38.95 40.73 39.06 43.12 48.68 47.11 48.31 54.56 55.30 57.13 57.07 9 10 11 12 13 B. Casual or explanatory methods Simple Linear Regression Model y = a + bx where a= intercept b = slope of the line x= time period y = forecast for demand for period x Nov = WMA 0.5(720)+0.3(678)+0.2(650)=693.4 4 3 The 5th distinction is based on lead time/response time to customers demand. Manufacturers take generally some lead time (i.e. time period from placing the order to get the product) in terms of days/week. Whereas the services are offered within few minutes of customers arrival. For ex: ATM Service, getting postal stamps, getting grocery from a retail shop and getting examined by a doctor etc. The 6th distinction is on availability. Products can be available from regional, national or international markets due to availability of transportations and distribution facilities whereas, service can't shipped to distant locations. Thus service organization requiring direct customer contact must locate very near to the customers. The 7th distinction is based on liabilities/facilities. Manufacturing unit/organization producing products generally require larger facilities, more automation and greater capital investment than service providing organization. The 8th distinction is based on capital/labour priority. Generally manufacturing firm producing goods/products require more capital than a service provider. Ex. An automobile firm requires more capital than a post office/Nursing home. The 9th and 10th distinction is based on quality and demand variation. 2.4 Various types of Layout: Plant layout means the disposition of the various facilities (equipment, material, manpower etc.) and services of the plant within the area of site located. Objectives . Material handling and transportation is minimized and effectively controlled. Bottlenecks and points of congestions are eliminated (by line balancing) so that the raw- material and semi-finished goods move fast from one workstation to other. Workstations are designed suitable and properly. Suitable spaces are allocated to production centers and service centers. The movements made by the workers minimized. 1 Layout can be classified into the following four categories: a. process layout b. product layout c. Group layout(combination layout) d. Fixed position layout 18. Why do people generally move from one country to another? Why has there been slow movement of people between countries in the past few decades? Explain