It was determined on the project from problem 1 that the duration for the tasks contained some uncertainty. After more research, the optimistic and pessimistic values were determined. This problem can be completed by hand or using Excel (not MSP).

a) Calculate the expected time and variance (using the 99 percent confidence level) for each activity (again prior to assigning resources).

b) Using the expected times, determine the critical path and time for completion.

c) Calculate the probability that the project will finish in 22 days. Calculate the probability that the project will finish in 24 days.

d) Based on the information given, calculate the probability that the next riskiest path will be completed in 22 days.

e) Your boss wants to know what time it will take to complete with you being 90% sure. What do you tell her?

Task Predecessor Resource Used Normal Cost Max Crash Time Crash Cost Normal Time Days 10 7 A 1 B 2 $2400 $1400 1120 640 $2700 1900 1120 900 C 4 0 A A,B D 2 1 E B 5 3 3000 880 Dan Henry Greg Kim Greg, Kim Dan, Curt Curt Grace Dan, Grace F C,D 2 3675 1080 1230 640 1 1000 1 olI mo 5 2 3 640 0 1 F,G,H 1680 1 1960 TE Task Predecessor Optimistic Time Normal Time Days Pessimistic Time Variance (99%) 8 10 15 OUD 4 7 10 4 4 7 N D 1 2 5 E 2 2 9 F 2 AD B CD D E F,G,H 3 9 3 ||| | w IO 1 2 4 1 1 9