Question: Its a discussion, I just need some thoughts like what do u guys think about the given situations below. No need of a specific answer,

Its a discussion, I just need some thoughts like what do u guys think about the given situations below. No need of a specific answer, just some thoughts (2-3 lines)

I need this asap, can someone please help.

Q-1 Do we understand risk?Much of classical statistical reasoning is structured around processes similar to a criminal trial. In a criminal trial, the accused must be found guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. This is very subjective. The judge or jury wants there to be a very small chance of sending an innocent person to jail. The trial is structured around assuming the defendant is innocent and then the prosecution presents evidence to prove guilt. The judge/jury must weigh whether it is possible to accept the evidence presented and still believe innocence. If it is possible, then they conclude not guilty but if they no longer believe that the evidence is possible with innocence, they conclude guilty.

In statistical hypothesis testing, you might put the belief this marketing strategy is ineffective on trial. You then present evidence of using this marketing strategy on a test group, seeing sales increase, and then ask could this happen just by chance? Maybe sales went up just by chance. If the evidence is sufficiently compelling, you conclude that it is effective. We can set up procedures to calculate the probability of sales increasing just by chance. We conclude the marketing strategy is effective if this chance is very small below some threshold.

What should the threshold be? It is common to use either 1% or 5%. That is, the test procedure will lead you to adopting an ineffective marketing strategy 1% (or 5%) of the time, because sales increased just by chance, not because of the new strategy. Can you differentiate between a 1% risk and a 5% risk? How should you decide on how large a risk to take?

Q-2 Course instructors are given two main tasks: foster learning and assess the level of mastery. Changing to an online world has led to changes in models for both of these tasks. Instructors have taken different approaches to fostering learning. They have also tried different approaches to assessment. How do you determine whether a students understanding of the course outcomes is Excellent, or Very Good, or Satisfactory, or Marginal, or Unsatisfactory?Most instructors use part of the grade as a reward, to encourage students to do an activity that will foster learning, rather than really evaluate the learning.Is there a best model for classification of mastery? What are strengths and weaknesses of various models that you have experienced? Are there models that will not work in online courses, but will in face-to-face courses?

Q-3 How should you make a decision about COVID vaccination?The supply of vaccines is increasing very quickly. Soon there will be enough vaccines available to vaccinate everyone. Will you agree to be vaccinated? If so, does it matter which vaccine is given?

There is significant debate about vaccines and the debates and information are constantly changing. Are the vaccines effective on those under 18? Over 65? How effective are they? P{COVID | Vaccine} = ?? How long are they effective? That is, will the probability change? Are we protecting against getting the virus or against serious negative outcomes (hospitalization, death) if you get the virus? If I take the vaccine, are there risks, other than COVID (e.g., blood clots, allergic reaction,)?

Deciding on getting any vaccine is a decision, that must be compared to the decision NOT to take a vaccine.To do evaluation, you need to define what the consequences are of a decision and what you consider success. How would you define success for the vaccine decision? The Public Health Office is considering the general population, so may look at expected value the average outcome. But for your personal decision, there is no average. Is success different for an individual from that of senior policy makers?

Step by Step Solution

There are 3 Steps involved in it

1 Expert Approved Answer
Step: 1 Unlock blur-text-image
Question Has Been Solved by an Expert!

Get step-by-step solutions from verified subject matter experts

Step: 2 Unlock
Step: 3 Unlock

Students Have Also Explored These Related General Management Questions!