Question: John is not sure what he should do. He can build a quadplex (i.e., building with four apartments), build a duplex, gather additional information or

John is not sure what he should do. He can build a quadplex (i.e., building with four apartments), build a duplex, gather additional information or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could be either favorable or unfavorable, but it would cost him $3000 to gather the information. John believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, John will earn $15,000 with the quadplex or $ 5,000 with the duplex. John doesnt have the financial resources to do both. With an unfavorable rental market, however, John could lose $20,000 with the quadplex or $10,000 with the duplex. Without gathering additional information, John estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is 0.7. A favorable report from the study would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.9. Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.4. Of course, John could forget all of these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to John?

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