Looking at this plot, you might think that something is wrong.

Data

Select a description that best describes the situation.

More of the data points $($asterisks$)$ are above the horizontal prediction line than below the line, so there is something wrong with the prediction or the data or both.

Actually, after more careful inspection, the plot looks OK$.$

We expect about $\frac{1}{3}$ of the data points to be greater than one sigma away from the horizontal prediction line, but that is not what is displayed. Either the error bars are too big or the scatter of the data points $($asterisks$)$ is too small.

Either the error bars are too small or the scatter of the data points is too large: the data point at $x=2\mathrm{.}5$ has an error bar that completely misses the horizontal prediction line, so something must be wrong.