Luckily, Mr. Smith is able to run a Monte Carlo Simulation at www.retirementsimulation.com. While entering his information, he conservatively assumes that, on average, his stock returns will be 2% below the overall stock market and his bond returns will be 1% below the overall bond market. Also, he wants to assume the worst case scenario of encountering a 40% stock market crash just as he retires at age 67.

He enters an asset allocation of: 50% stocks 30% bonds 20% cash

Out of the 5,000 scenarios that the simulation ran, what is the chance he will still have money when he reaches 90? Multiple Choice

A. ~0%

B. ~11%

C. ~25%

D. ~70%