Maps 4. [20 points] Following table shows the sales data of hair clippers at a supermarket. Month Sales Nov. 29 Dec. 26 Jan. 30 Feb. 36 Mar. 40 April 38 a. Calculate the forecast sales for May using three-month moving average (5 points) b. Forecast sales for May using the weighted moving average method. The weights are W11 = 0.6, W1-2 = 0.25,W2-3 = 0.15. (5 points) C. If the actual sales for May is 35, calculate the error for each method (MA and WMA) for months 7. [5 points) d. Which forecasting method is more accurate? Explain why. [5 points) Show all calculations to earn full credit. 5. [20 points) Sales of copy paper reems (in thousands) in a copy shop chain is as follows: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sales 51 55 54 57 50 68 66 59 67 69 75 73 The procurement managers are trying to choose a good forecasting model for forecasting the demand. They are considering Single Exponential Smoothening (SES) method as the forecasting model. One manager suggested that a value should be 0.2 and another experienced manager suggested that a value should be 0.7. They decided to test the a values by comparing the Mean Square Error (MSE) for each a value. Help the managers to decide which a value is better for SES model (Hint: calculate SES forecast values for a +0.2 and a = 0.7. Then calculate MSE value for each a value) (Show all calculations. A non-analytical discussion is not acceptable as the answer). 3/3 6. [20 points] Crossroad Inn is a small bed-and-breakfast inn. Following table shows guest arrivals and advertising cost for the last year. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Guest arrivals 1400 1100 1500 1600 2400 2800 2200 2100 2600 4300 3400 3900 Advertising (Thousands of $) 6 3 5 5 15 18 17 12 15 20 14 20 a) Is there relationship between the advertising spending and number of guests arrived? Provide reasoning for your answer. (Hint: Use regression correlation analysis or a scatter plot to visualize the data. Show screen captures or scanned images to show work). b) Develop a simple linear regression model that relates advertising cost to guest arrivals. (Hint: Use Excel formulas or Excel regression analysis tools, Show screen captures to show work). c) The manager has decided to spend $4000 and $3000 for advertising for next periods. Use linear regression model and forecast the guest arrivals for next two periods