MBA 812 - Operations and Project Management

Spring 2024

Prof. Christian N. Madu

Assignment 1

1. Attendance at Orlando's newest Disney-like attraction, Minecraft World, has been as follows:

QUARTER	GUESTS (IN THOUSANDS)	QUARTER	GUESTS (IN THOUSANDS)
Winter 2019	73	Summer 2020	124
Spring 2019	104	Fall 2020	52
Summer 2019	168	Winter 2021	89
Fall 2019	74	Spring 2021	146
Winter 2020	65	Summer 2021	205
Spring 2020	82	Fall 2021	98

1. Compute the seasonal indexes
2. Which quarter has the largest change in the number of guests?
3. Use the Nave method to forecast the number of guests for the Winter of 2022.
4. Use 3-quarter moving average to forecast the number of guests for the Winter of 2022.
5. Use exponential smoothing model to forecast the number of guests for the Winter of 2022. Assume a smoothing constant of 0.20.
6. Use the trend projection model to forecast the number of guests for the Winter of 2022.
7. Compare the three forecast methods you have used and recommend the forecast for Winter of 2022.
8. Discuss the trend projection model for this problem.

2. A 10-year study conducted by the American Heart Association provided data on how age, blood pressure, and smoking relate to the risk of strokes. Assume the following data are from a portion of this study. Risk is interpreted as the probability (times 100) that the patient will have a stroke over the next 10-year period. For the smoking variable, define a dummy variable with 1 indicating a smoker and 0 indicating a nonsmoker. (See the Stroke file).

1. Develop an estimated regression equation that relates risk of a stroke to the person's age, blood pressure, and whether the person is a smoker.
2. Is smoking a significant factor in the risk of a stroke? Explain. Use = 0.05.
3. What is the probability of a stroke over the next 10 years of Art Speen, a 68-year-old smoker who has blood pressure of 175? What action might the physician recommend for this patient?

Use the data on Stroke

Due Date: On or before February 29