Mini Case Study $-$ Forecasting $($Excel file is required$)$

Joel Backer Cakes Shoppe is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types of his cakes that he sells, but also to determine which forecasting method should be used that will be suited for each of the cakes. His past sixteen months of sales data $($in hundreds$)$ are shown in the table below.

a$.$ By plotting the historical sales data of all the three cake types on same graph, please suggest the possible forecasting method$($s$)$ you may want to consider for each cake type. Please state your reasons.

b$.$ For Cinnamon Buns: Suppose you have restricted your forecasting method to a choice of Moving Averages $(3$ months only$),$ Exponential Smoothing $(\backslash (\backslash$alpha$=0\mathrm{.}7\backslash ),$ initial forecast F$1=204),$ or Exponential Smoothing with Trend $($use optimal $\backslash (\backslash$boldsymbol$\{\backslash$alpha$\}\backslash )$ and $\backslash (\backslash$boldsymbol$\{\backslash$delta$\}\backslash ),$ initial trend forecast $\backslash (\backslash$mathrm$\{$T$\}1=2\backslash ),$ initial exponentially smoothed forecast F$1=205).$

$-$ Develop your forecasts using each method.

$-$ Using MAD measurement, which method would you recommend and state why?