Module $4$ Assignment

The file InpatientWaitList$-$NHS$.$xls contains data collected by the National Health Service on the median amount of time that physician referred patients had to wait to receive inpatient care at a hospital in the UK$.$ The data is collected monthly from June $1998$ February $2010.$

Find the best fitting ARIMA model for this data using R$.$

Did you apply a transformation? Why or why not

What are the parameters $($pdq$$s and seasonality$)$ of the best fitting model?

What are the expected wait times in March, April, and May of $2010?$

Upload a graph of the data with predicted wait times, with $50\%$ and $75\%$ prediction intervals displayed and this the data Year Month Median

$1998$ June $15\mathrm{.}2$

$1998$ July $14\mathrm{.}4$

$1998$ August $14\mathrm{.}2$

$1998$ September $14\mathrm{.}1$

$1998$ October $13\mathrm{.}6$

$1998$ November $12\mathrm{.}8$

$1998$ December $13\mathrm{.}1$

$1999$ January $13\mathrm{.}5$

$1999$ February $13\mathrm{.}6$

$1999$ March $12\mathrm{.}8$

$1999$ April $12\mathrm{.}7$

$1999$ May $12\mathrm{.}7$

$1999$ June $12\mathrm{.}8$

$1999$ July $12\mathrm{.}7$

$1999$ August $12\mathrm{.}7$

$1999$ September $12\mathrm{.}8$

$1999$ October $12\mathrm{.}8$

$1999$ November $12\mathrm{.}3$

$1999$ December $12\mathrm{.}8$

$2000$ January $13\mathrm{.}2$

$2000$ February $13\mathrm{.}8$

$2000$ March $12\mathrm{.}9$

$2000$ April $12\mathrm{.}9$

$2000$ May $13\mathrm{.}1$

$2000$ June $13\mathrm{.}3$

$2000$ July $12\mathrm{.}8$

$2000$ August $12\mathrm{.}9$

$2000$ September $13\mathrm{.}0$

$2000$ October $12\mathrm{.}8$

$2000$ November $12\mathrm{.}4$

$2000$ December $12\mathrm{.}8$

$2001$ January $12\mathrm{.}9$

$2001$ February $13\mathrm{.}0$

$2001$ March $12\mathrm{.}6$

$2001$ April $12\mathrm{.}8$

$2001$ May $13\mathrm{.}2$

$2001$ June $13\mathrm{.}7$

$2001$ July $13\mathrm{.}1$

$2001$ August $13\mathrm{.}1$

$2001$ September $13\mathrm{.}4$

$2001$ October $12\mathrm{.}9$

$2001$ November $12\mathrm{.}4$

$2001$ December $12\mathrm{.}7$

$2002$ January $13\mathrm{.}0$

$2002$ February $13\mathrm{.}1$

$2002$ March $12\mathrm{.}7$

$2002$ April $12\mathrm{.}6$

$2002$ May $12\mathrm{.}7$

$2002$ June $13\mathrm{.}2$

$2002$ July $12\mathrm{.}9$

$2002$ August $13\mathrm{.}4$

$2002$ September $12\mathrm{.}8$

$2002$ October $12\mathrm{.}6$

$2002$ November $12\mathrm{.}2$

$2002$ December $12\mathrm{.}5$

$2003$ January $12\mathrm{.}6$

$2003$ February $12\mathrm{.}6$

$2003$ March $11\mathrm{.}9$

$2003$ April $12\mathrm{.}0$

$2003$ May $12\mathrm{.}1$

$2003$ June $12\mathrm{.}1$

$2003$ July $11\mathrm{.}8$

$2003$ August $11\mathrm{.}8$

$2003$ September $11\mathrm{.}7$

$2003$ October $11\mathrm{.}5$

$2003$ November $11\mathrm{.}0$

$2003$ December $11\mathrm{.}2$

$2004$ January $11\mathrm{.}2$

$2004$ February $11\mathrm{.}0$

$2004$ March $10\mathrm{.}2$

$2004$ April $9\mathrm{.}3$

$2004$ May $9\mathrm{.}9$

$2004$ June $9\mathrm{.}5$

$2004$ July $8\mathrm{.}9$

$2004$ August $9\mathrm{.}3$

$2004$ September $9\mathrm{.}0$

$2004$ October $8\mathrm{.}6$

$2004$ November $8\mathrm{.}4$

$2004$ December $8\mathrm{.}7$

$2005$ January $9\mathrm{.}3$

$2005$ February $8\mathrm{.}7$

$2005$ March $8\mathrm{.}4$

$2005$ April $8\mathrm{.}3$

$2005$ May $8\mathrm{.}3$

$2005$ June $8\mathrm{.}0$

$2005$ July $8\mathrm{.}1$

$2005$ August $8\mathrm{.}2$

$2005$ September $7\mathrm{.}8$

$2005$ October $7\mathrm{.}5$

$2005$ November $7\mathrm{.}0$

$2005$ December $7\mathrm{.}6$

$2006$ January $7\mathrm{.}9$

$2006$ February $7\mathrm{.}6$

$2006$ March $7\mathrm{.}3$

$2006$ April $7\mathrm{.}6$

$2006$ May $7\mathrm{.}6$

$2006$ June $7\mathrm{.}1$

$2006$ July $7\mathrm{.}0$

$2006$ August $7\mathrm{.}5$

$2006$ September $7\mathrm{.}4$

$2006$ October $6\mathrm{.}9$

$2006$ November $7\mathrm{.}4$

$2006$ December $7\mathrm{.}4$

$2007$ January $7\mathrm{.}6$

$2007$ February $6\mathrm{.}6$

$2007$ March $6\mathrm{.}2$

$2007$ April $6\mathrm{.}4$

$2007$ May $6\mathrm{.}0$

$2007$ June $5\mathrm{.}8$

$2007$ July $5\mathrm{.}5$

$2007$ August $5\mathrm{.}8$

$2007$ September $5\mathrm{.}3$

$2007$ October $5\mathrm{.}0$

$2007$ November $4\mathrm{.}6$

$2007$ December $5\mathrm{.}2$

$2008$ January $4\mathrm{.}6$

$2008$ February $4\mathrm{.}2$

$2008$ March $4\mathrm{.}5$

$2008$ April $4\mathrm{.}0$

$2008$ May $4\mathrm{.}4$

$2008$ June $4\mathrm{.}0$

$2008$ July $4\mathrm{.}2$

$2008$ August $4\mathrm{.}5$

$2008$ September $4\mathrm{.}0$

$2008$ October $4\mathrm{.}1$

$2008$ November $3\mathrm{.}9$

$2008$ December $4\mathrm{.}6$

$2009$ January $4\mathrm{.}0$

$2009$ February $4\mathrm{.}2$

$2009$ March $4\mathrm{.}0$

$2009$ April $4\mathrm{.}5$

$2009$ May $4\mathrm{.}4$

$2009$ June $4\mathrm{.}0$

$2009$ July $4\mathrm{.}2$

$2009$ August $4\mathrm{.}5$

$2009$ September $4\mathrm{.}1$

$2009$ October $4\mathrm{.}2$

$2009$ November $4\mathrm{.}2$

$2009$ December $5\mathrm{.}0$

$2010$ January $5\mathrm{.}1$

$2010$ February $4\mathrm{.}4$