: Moving Average and forecast Accuracy Below you can find the population of Alberta from 1951...

 

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: Moving Average and forecast Accuracy Below you can find the population of Alberta from 1951 to 2022 (as of October 1st of each year) from Statistcs Canada. Using the data below, answer the following questions: 1. What is the expected ppulation of Alberta in 2023, using the following forecasting methods: 1.a) the Naïve method 1.b) The moving average method with 2 periods 1.c) the moving average method with 3 periods 1.d) the moving average method with 4 periods. 2. Calculate the error for each of the methods for each year that you have a forecast for and use the 3 accuracy measures that we learned in class to compare the 4 forecasting methods of parts a-d. (you should add four columns to the table below and calculate the forecasted value for each case. Then you should add 4 more columns to calculate the error for each of the methods. Using the errors you should calculate the MAD, MSE and MAPE for each of the 4 forecasting techniques and state which one is performing better. Write your explanation in the bluw Method Naïve method MA-2 MA-3 MA-4 1958 1221000 1959 1263000 1960 1307000 1961 1345000 1962 1382000 1963 1414000 MAD Year Popuation Naïve MA-2 1951 950000 1952 985000 1953 1029000 1954 1070000 1955 1102000 1956 1136000 1957 1179000 1964 1436000 1965 1453000 1966 1470000 1967 1501000 1968 1536000 MSE MAPE MA-3 MA-4 Error Naïve Error MA-2 Error MA3 Error MA-4 ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ : Moving Average and forecast Accuracy Below you can find the population of Alberta from 1951 to 2022 (as of October 1st of each year) from Statistcs Canada. Using the data below, answer the following questions: 1. What is the expected ppulation of Alberta in 2023, using the following forecasting methods: 1.a) the Naïve method 1.b) The moving average method with 2 periods 1.c) the moving average method with 3 periods 1.d) the moving average method with 4 periods. 2. Calculate the error for each of the methods for each year that you have a forecast for and use the 3 accuracy measures that we learned in class to compare the 4 forecasting methods of parts a-d. (you should add four columns to the table below and calculate the forecasted value for each case. Then you should add 4 more columns to calculate the error for each of the methods. Using the errors you should calculate the MAD, MSE and MAPE for each of the 4 forecasting techniques and state which one is performing better. Write your explanation in the bluw Method Naïve method MA-2 MA-3 MA-4 1958 1221000 1959 1263000 1960 1307000 1961 1345000 1962 1382000 1963 1414000 MAD Year Popuation Naïve MA-2 1951 950000 1952 985000 1953 1029000 1954 1070000 1955 1102000 1956 1136000 1957 1179000 1964 1436000 1965 1453000 1966 1470000 1967 1501000 1968 1536000 MSE MAPE MA-3 MA-4 Error Naïve Error MA-2 Error MA3 Error MA-4 ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬

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