N88 Question 25 (10 points) Continued from the previous question Bass-killer, a special plastic bait, is available at the Winona Fishing Cabin(WFC) at $10 per bag. The demand can be approximated by a normal distribution with a mean of 21 bags per week and a standard deviation of 3.4 bags per week. Lead time is 3 weeks, and there will be shipping cost $50 for each order. The new manager desires a chance of stockout of 5% or lower. and estimates the annual inventory holding cost is 20% of sales price. Assume 1 year = 50 weeks. Suppose the manager is using the ROP described in part b). One day, the manager receives a call from the supplier that the order will be delayed because of problem at the supplier's truck. The supplier promises to have the order there in 2 weeks from now. After hanging up, the manager checks the supply of Bass-killer and finds that 25 bags have been sold since the previous order was placed. Assuming the suppliers promise is valid, what is the probability that WFC will run out of Bass-killer before the shipment arrives? (round to the nearest hundredth, for z value) 21 Standard Normal Cumulative Probability Table 24 Cumulative probabilities for POSITIVE values are shown in the following table: 0.00 0.91 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5000 0.5120 0.6160 05436 0.5190 0.5796 0.5230 0.5478 0.5517 0.6567 0.6793 0.5636 0.5832 0.5590 0.5871 0.5910 0.6948 0.5087 0.0179 0.6217 0.0026 0.2 Ron 0.07 0.5270 0.5875 0.6064 0.08 0.53 0.5714 0610 0.09 0.6350 0.5753 AB Standard Normal Cumulative Probability Table Cumulative probabilities for POSITIVE z-values are shown in the following table: z 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.00 0.5000 0.5398 0.5793 0.6179 0.6554 0.01 0.5040 0.5438 0.5832 0.6217 0.6591 0.02 0.5080 0.5478 0.5871 0.6255 0.6628 0.03 0.5120 0.5517 0.5910 0.6293 0.6664 0.04 0.5160 0.5557 0.5948 0.6331 0.6700 0.05 0.5199 0.5596 0.5987 0.6368 0.6736 0.06 0.5239 0.5636 0.6026 0.6406 0.6772 0.07 0.5279 0.5675 0.6064 0.6443 0.6808 0.08 0.5319 0.5714 0.6103 0.6480 0.6844 0.09 0.5359 0.5753 0.6141 0.6517 0.6879 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6915 0.7257 0.7580 0.7881 0.8159 0.6950 0.7291 0.7611 0.7910 0.8186 0.6985 0.7324 0.7642 0.7939 0.8212 0.7019 0.7357 0.7673 0.7967 0.8238 0.7054 0.7389 0.7704 0.7995 0.8264 0.7088 0.7422 0.7734 0.8023 0.8289 0.7123 0.7454 0.7764 0.8051 0.8315 0.7157 0.7486 0.7794 0.8078 0.8340 0.718 0.7517 0.7823 0.8106 0.8365 0.7224 0.7549 0.7852 0.8133 0.8389 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.8413 0.8643 0.8849 0.9032 0.9192 0.8438 0.8665 0.8869 0.9049 0.9207 0.8461 0.8686 0.8888 0.9066 0.9222 0.8485 0.8708 0.8907 0.9082 0.9236 0.8508 0.8729 0.8925 0.9099 0.9251 0.8531 0.8749 0.8944 0.9115 0.9265 0.8554 0.8770 0.8962 0.9131 0.9279 0.8577 0.8790 0.8980 0.9147 0.9292 0.8599 0.8810 0.8997 0.9162 0.9306 0.8621 0.8830 0.9015 0.9177 0.9319 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.9332 0.9452 0.9554 0.9641 0.9713 0.9345 0.9463 0.9564 0.9649 0.9719 0.9357 0.9474 0.9573 0.9656 0.9726 0.9370 0.9484 0.9582 0.9664 0.9732 0.9382 0.9495 0.9591 0.9671 0.9738 0.9394 0.9505 0.9599 0.9678 0.9744 0.9406 0.9515 0.9608 0.9686 0.9750 0.9418 0.9525 0.9616 0.9693 0.9756 0.9429 0.9535 0.9625 0.9699 0.9761 0.9441 0.9545 0.9633 0.9706 0.9767 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 0.9772 0.9821 0.9861 0.9893 0.9918 0.9778 0.9826 0.9864 0.9896 0.9920 0.9783 0.9830 0.9868 0.9898 0.9922 0.9788 0.9834 0.9871 0.9901 0.9925 0.9793 0.9838 0.9875 0.9904 0.9927 0.9798 0.9842 0878 0.9906 0.9929 0.9803 0.9846 0.9881 0.9909 0.9931 0.9808 0.9850 0.9884 0.9911 0.9932 0.9812 0.9854 0.9887 0.9913 0.9934 0.9817 0.9857 0.9890 0.9916 0.9936 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 0.9938 0.9953 0.9965 0.9974 0.9981 0.9940 0.9955 0.9966 0.9975 0.9982 0.9941 0.9956 0.9967 0.9976 0.9982 0.9943 0.9957 0.9968 0.9977 0.9983 0.9945 0.9959 0.9969 0.9977 0.9984 0.9946 0.9960 0.9970 0.9978 0.9984 0.9948 0.9961 0.9971 0.9979 0.9986 0.9949 0.9962 0.9972 0.9979 0.9985 0.9951 0.9963 0.9973 0.9980 0.9986 0.9952 0.9964 0.9974 0.9981 0.9986 3.0 0.9987 DDDD 0.9987 0.9987 nd 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 goon nnnnn 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6915 0.7257 0.7580 0.7881 0.8159 0.6950 0.7291 0.7611 0.7910 0.8186 0.6985 0.7324 0.7842 0.7939 0.8212 0.7019 0.7357 0.7673 0.7967 0.8238 0.7054 0.7389 0.7704 0.7995 0.8264 0.7088 0.7422 0.7734 0.8023 0.8289 0.7123 0.7454 0.7764 0.8051 0.8315 0.7157 0.7486 0.7794 0.8078 0.8340 0.7190 0.7517 0.7823 0.8106 0.8365 0.7224 0.7549 0.7852 0.8133 0.8389 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.8413 0.8643 0.8849 0.9032 0.9192 0.8438 0.8665 0.8869 0.9049 0.9207 0.8461 0.8686 0.8888 0.9066 0.9222 0.8485 0.8708 0.8907 0.9082 0.9236 0.8508 0.8729 0.8925 0.9099 0.9251 0.8531 0.8749 0.8944 0.9115 0.9265 0.8554 0.8770 0.8962 0.9131 0.9279 0.8577 0.8790 0.8980 0.9147 0.9292 0.8599 0.8810 0.8997 0.9162 0.9306 0.8621 0.8830 0.9015 0.9177 0.9319 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.9332 0.9452 0.9554 0.9641 0.9713 0.9345 0.9463 0.9564 0.9649 0.9719 0.9357 0.9474 0.9573 0.9656 0.9726 0.9370 0.9484 0.9582 0.9664 0.9732 0.9382 0.9495 0.9591 0.9671 0.9738 0.9394 0.9505 0.9599 0.9678 0744 0.9406 0.9515 0.9608 0.9686 0.9750 0.9418 0.9525 0.9616 0.9693 0.9756 0.9429 0.9535 0.9625 0.9699 0.9781 0.9441 0.9545 0.9633 0.9706 0.9767 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 24 0.9772 0.9821 0.9861 0.9893 0.9918 0.9778 0.9826 0.9864 0.9896 0.9920 0.9783 0.9830 0.9868 0.9898 0.9922 0.9788 0.9834 0.9871 0.9901 0.9925 0.9793 0.9838 0.9675 0.9904 0.9927 0.9798 0.9842 0.9878 0.9906 0.9929 0.9803 0.9846 0.9881 0.9909 0.9931 0.9808 0.9850 0.9884 0.9911 0.9932 0.9812 0.9854 0.9867 0.9913 0.9934 0.9817 0.9857 0.9090 0.9910 0.9936 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 0.9938 0.9953 0.9965 0.9974 0.9981 0.9940 0.9955 0.9986 0.9975 0.9982 0.9941 0.9950 0.9067 0.9976 0.9982 0.9943 0.9957 0.9968 0.9077 0.9983 0.9945 0.9959 0.9909 0.9977 0.9984 0.9946 0.9900 0.9970 0.9978 0.0084 0.9948 0.9961 0.9971 0.9979 0.9985 0.9949 0.9982 0.9972 0.9979 0.9985 0.9951 0.9963 0.9973 0.9980 0.9986 0.9952 0.9964 0.9974 0.9981 0.9986 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 0.9987 0.9990 0.9993 0.9995 0.9997 0.9987 0.0001 0.9993 0.9995 0.9997 0.9987 0.9991 0.9994 0.9995 0.9997 0.9988 0.9991 0.9994 0.9996 0.9997 0.9988 0.9992 0.0004 0.9996 0.9997 0.9989 0.9992 0.9994 0.9996 0997 0.9989 0.9992 0.9994 0.9996 0.9997 0.9989 0.9992 0.9995 0.9906 0.9997 0.9990 0.9993 0.9995 0.9996 0.9997 0.9990 0.9993 0.9995 0.9997 0.9998