Name: ______________________________________ ECON-UA 323: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Assignment # 4 Due: April 2, 2020 Please submit a PDF of this assignment at the start of class (12:30pm EST) on the due date. You can export a pdf from any word processing software, and it makes it much easier for us to grade. There aren't any graphs or unusual symbols on this problem set. Relative to other problem sets, this one is the straightforward. I would like you to read two papers, one on political economy, and one on the returns to capital (the experiment I discussed in class). Specifically, the following papers: Hilt, Eric and Wendy Rahn (2018). \"Financial Asset Ownership and Political Partisanship: Liberty Bonds and Republican Electoral Success in the 1920s.\" Working Paper De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff (2008). \"Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment,\" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(4): 1329-1372. Parts of the papers are somewhat technical and you can skip those - for this problem set, I'm more interested in the empirical analysis. In the next pages, I've included a template 1 which will help you think about how to read empirical analyses, and which you should fill out. 1 I've adapted the template from one designed by Dan Levy and Sue Dynarski. Hilt, Eric and Wendy Rahn (2018). \"Financial Asset Ownership and Political Partisanship: Liberty Bonds and Republican Electoral Success in the 1920s.\" Working Paper Population and Treatment 1) What is the main goal of the paper? (e.g., assess the effect of class size reduction on students' performance, assess the effect of a job training program on earnings, etc.) ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 2) What outcome measures are used? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 3) What population is being studied? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ Methodology 4) What method(s) is(are) being used for the evaluation (Randomized Controlled Trial, simple OLS, Differences-in-Differences, Fixed Effects, etc.)? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 5) What are the key threats to the internal validity of the study? That is, why would the numbers they generate be biased estimates of the true casual effects of the population they are studying? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 6) How would these threats affect the estimate (direction of bias)? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ Results 7) For the main outcome, what is the range of the effects estimated by the study? Their statistical significance? Is there a preferred estimate designated by the author(s)? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 8) How \"big\" are these effects, from a policy or practical perspective? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 9) Is there a secondary outcome that you think is important? If so, what is the range of the effects estimated by the study? Their statistical significance? Is there a preferred estimate designated by the author(s)? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 10) How \"big\" are these effects, from a policy or practical perspective? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 11) If you had been writing the study, what other outcomes would you have wanted to look at? Why? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 12) What are important issues for assessing the external validity of the study? That is, why might their results be biased for understanding a similar causal effect but in a different setting that is more relevant to a policy question that you directly care about? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff (2008). \"Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment,\" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(4): 1329-1372. Population and Treatment 1) What is the main goal of the paper? (e.g., assess the effect of class size reduction on students' performance, assess the effect of a job training program on earnings, etc.) ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 2) What outcome measures are used? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 3) What population is being studied? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ Methodology 4) What method(s) is(are) being used for the evaluation (Randomized Controlled Trial, simple OLS, Differences-in-Differences, Fixed Effects, etc.)? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 5) What are the key threats to the internal validity of the study? That is, why would the numbers they generate be biased estimates of the true casual effects of the population they are studying? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 6) How would these threats affect the estimate (direction of bias)? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ Results 7) For the main outcome, what is the range of the effects estimated by the study? Their statistical significance? Is there a preferred estimate designated by the author(s)? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 8) How \"big\" are these effects, from a policy or practical perspective? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 9) Is there a secondary outcome that you think is important? If so, what is the range of the effects estimated by the study? Their statistical significance? Is there a preferred estimate designated by the author(s)? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 10) How \"big\" are these effects, from a policy or practical perspective? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 11) If you had been writing the study, what other outcomes would you have wanted to look at? Why? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 12) What are important issues for assessing the external validity of the study? That is, why might their results be biased for understanding a similar causal effect but in a different setting that is more relevant to a policy question that you directly care about? ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________