Need final answer.

Develop a research question-

Why do we see a growth in production for California milk cows from 1990 -2005. From the base of 1440 lbs at the beginning of the research to the mid point of the last year, you see a near 50% milk production increase among the milk cows. Is this a linear progression or a non-linear, rather an exponential increase.

Formulate a numerical and verbal hypothesis statement regarding your research issue-

--Numerical Hypothesis

Equation: m (p[total]) = m (p [base])(1+h (c))

The equation states that the total milk production for any month is equal to the base production times itself (1) plus the happiness of the cow for that month.

Definition (?): h (c) = (x + x(1) +... x (n))/100

The definition just states how we arrive at the happiness factor. Each x to x(n) is taken into account in the cows happiness. H(c) will never be greater than 1.

Using the current data provided in the milk data spreadsheet we can see a trend forming that lasts through out the study. May seems to be the happiest month for cows.

So I used the Equation to show a definitive trend.

January of 1990 is the base production month as it is the first month with recorded data. So the m (p [base]) = 1485.

The equation should show now m (p [total]) = 1485 (1+h (c))

Now sub in any monthly total... we will go with February which is a negative (h)appiness month..

Feb 1990 = 1360 a decrease.

So our equation now looks like this

1360 = 1485 (1+h (c)) solve for h (c)

1) 1360/1485 = (1485 (1+h (c)))1485

2) 1360/1485 = 1+h (c)

3) .913 -1 = (1 + h (c) ) -1

4) -.087 = h (c) the cows were 8% sadder in feb then in jan.

Now if we applied this to may of 1990, the best month, we can see that...

1640 = 1485 (1+h) which leads to...

1.10 = 1 + h

.10 = h

The cows were 10% happier in may than in January. A similar trend occurs throughout the study. So I tried yearly totals based on January production numbers.

January 2005 = 1770

1770 = 1485 (1+h)

1.19 = 1 + h

.19 = h.

Cows over 15 years grew to be happier by 19%.

The over all change in happiness from the base to the highest month is 26%. This is may of 05 at 1885.

I think this is the data we were looking for overall. While we cannot pinpoint a specific set of variables we do see the effect of the happiness on production. The months are a mix of gains and losses that equate to an overall gain each year. The average gain is 1.7% in additional production per year.

--Verbal Hypothesis: The milk production of cows in California is related their overall happiness.

What is the independent variable?

Happiness of the cows

What is the dependent variable?

Milk production

Select a level of significance.

Identify the test statistic.

The way I see it is that if we indicate 50% in our hypothesis, than that would be the test statistic. The level of significance would be lets say our data returned and we only saw a 40% increase. We were not correct on our hypothesis which is wok but I believe that information is linked to the level of significance.

****Describe the results of your test, and explain how the findings from this hypothesis testing can be used to answer your research question.****