Question: not too sure what is being told here. is it possible to be summarized in detail as an introduction to an essay ? The global

not too sure what is being told here. is it possible to be summarized in detail as an introduction to an essay ?

not too sure what is being told here. is it possible to

The global economy is experiencing a number of emerging market debt distress. Halting gas supplies by turbulent challenges. Inflation higher than seen in Russia could depress output in Europe. A resurgence several decades, tightening financial conditions in of COVID-19 or new global health scares might most regions, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the further stunt growth. A worsening of China's property lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on sector crisis could spill over to the domestic banking the outlook. Normalization of monetary and fiscal sector and weigh heavily on the country's growth, policies that delivered unprecedented support during with negative cross-border effects. And geopoliti the pandemic is cooling demand as policymakers aim cal fragmentation could impede trade and capital to lower inflation back to target. But a growing share flows, further hindering climate policy cooperation. of economies are in a growth slowdown or outright The balance of risks is tilted firmly to the downside, contraction. The global economy's future health rests with about a 25 percent chance of one-year-ahead critically on the successful calibration of monetary global growth falling below 2.0 percent-in the policy, the course of the war in Ukraine, and the 10th percentile of global growth outturns since 1970. possibility of further pandemic-related supply-side Warding off these risks starts with monetary disruptions, for example, in China. policy staying the course to restore price stability. As Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent demonstrated in Chapter 2, front-loaded and aggres- in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in sive monetary tightening is critical to avoid inflation 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 de-anchoring as a result of households and businesses except for the global financial crisis and the acute basing their wage and price expectations on their phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and reflects recent inflation experience. Fiscal policy's priority is significant slowdowns for the largest economics: a the protection of vulnerable groups through targeted US GDP contraction in the first half of 2022, a euro near-term support to alleviate the burden of the cost- area contraction in the second half of 2022, and of-living crisis felt across the globe. But its overall prolonged COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns in stance should remain sufficiently tight to keep mone- China with a growing property sector crisis. About tary policy on target. Addressing growing government a third of the world economy faces two consecutive debt distress caused by lower growth and higher bor- quarters of negative growth. Global inflation is fore- rowing costs requires a meaningful improvement in cast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent debt resolution frameworks. With tightening financial in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to conditions, macroprudential policies should remain 4.1 percent by 2024. Upside inflation surprises have on guard against systemic risks. Intensifying struc- been most widespread among advanced economies, tural reforms to improve productivity and economic with greater variability in emerging market and capacity would ease supply constraints and in doing developing economies. so support monetary policy in fighting inflation. Poli- Risks to the outlook remain unusually large and to cies to fast-track the green energy transition will yield the downside, Monetary policy could miscalculate the long-term payoffs for energy security and the costs of right stance to reduce inflation. Policy paths in the ongoing climate change. As Chapter 3 shows, phasing largest economies could continue to diverge, leading in the right measures over the coming eight years will to further US dollar appreciation and cross-border keep the macroeconomic costs manageable. And last, tensions. More energy and food price shocks might successful multilateral cooperation will prevent frag- cause inflation to persist for longer. Global tighten- mentation that could reverse the gains in economic ing in financing conditions could trigger widespread well-being from 30 years of economic integration

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