Operations Management BUSI414 Individual Assignment 2 Question 1 (a) The monthly sales for Summer Fresh juices for the year 2016 were as follows Month January February March April May June July August September October November December January 2017 Sales 20 25 17 14 13 16 17 18 22 20 21 23 ? Required: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) Using a three-period simple moving average calculate the forecasted sales for January 2017. Using weights of 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 (most recent period to least recent period respectively) calculate the three month weighted moving average forecast for the upcoming period July to December. Using exponential Smoothing, calculate the forecast the sales for July to December use a smoothing constant of = 0.3 (assume the forecasted sales for the month of June is 16) Hint: Forecast from July to December. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why? (20 Marks) Question 2 Car sales over an 18-week period at a busy car dealership are as follows: Number Week of cars sold 1 220 2 245 3 280 4 275 5 300 6 310 7 350 8 360 9 400 10 380 11 420 12 450 13 460 14 475 15 500 16 510 17 525 18 541 a) Determine a linear trend line equation for expected car sales. b) Use the trend equation to predict expected car sales for weeks 20 and 21. c) The manager intends to launch a new promotion when the sales volume exceeds 800 cars per week. Assuming that the current trend continues, in what week is the sales volume expected to reach 800 cars per week? (20 Marks) Operations Management BUSI414 Individual Assignment 1 Answer ALL Questions Required: Please submit your response to the Assignment 1 site in Sakai by Friday, February 24, 2017. 1. Dan Brown opened four new bookstores in towns with major university campuses. Monthly sales volume and labor hours information is provided in the table below. a. Which store location has the highest labor productivity? b. What is the unit of the labor productivity calculated? (5 Marks) 2. Small Island Courier Service is evaluating the productivity of its package processing centers. The centers differ in the degree of automation, the type of work that can be performed, and the skill of the workers. a. Calculate the multifactor productivity for each center. b. Workers in Center 1 are scheduled to receive a 15% pay raise next month. How will that affect productivity? c. A new processing machine is available for Center 3 that would increase the output to 6000 pieces an hour at an additional overhead rate of $40 an hour. What is the new multifactor productivity of Center 3 with this new processing machine? d. Should Small Island Courier Service install the new processing machine? (20 Marks) 3. Consider the activities, durations, and predecessor relationships in the following network. Draw the network and answer the questions that follow. a. b. c. d. e. f. g. Draw the network diagram Calculate the expected time for each activity. Calculate the variance of each activity Based on the calculation of estimated times, what is the critical path? What is the estimated time of the critical path? What is the activity variance along the critical path? What is the probability of completion of the project before week 36? (30 Marks)