Out of the four possible forecasting models $(3-$week and $6-$week simple moving average

and exponential smoothing with parameters $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$ and $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}6),$ which is the best forecast?

Justify your answer by calculating the MAD. $($For exponential smoothing models, assume

the forecast for the first week is $600.)$ Here is the data: $1574$

$21,004$

$3717$

$41,076$

$51,076$

$6932$

$71,291$

$81,219$

$9932$

$101,219$

$111,219$

$121,076$

$131,650$

$141,650$

$151,434$

$161,219$

$171,291$

$181,578$

$191,793$

$201,721$

$211,578$

$221,865$

$231,434$

$241,793$

$251,865$

$261,506$

$271,650$

$281,506$

$291,721$

$301,506$