Page 1 of 3 Forecasting Exercise: Double Exponential Smoothing 2. Given the following demand data and the parameters highlighted), calculate FIT, for periods 1 to 9 by using the double exponential smoothing method. b. Using your last Rand Tt, forecast demand for periods 10, 15, and 20. c. Assess the accuracy of your forecasts using CFE, blas, MAD, and MAPE. Formulas: 1. FIT = F,+T 2. Fe = FIT+1 + af A-1 - FIT-) 3. T = T-1 + B(Fu - F-1 - T-1) (OR: T = T-1 + aB(Au-1 - FIT.)) 4. FIT en F-1 + n x T-1 (e.g. t is the last period with actual demand, when t = 8, n = 2, FIT+2 = F8-1 + 2 x T.1) Period AL TE FITI Error ABSJE! %E Parameters 1 120 100.00 10.00 alpha 0.4 bela 0.25 143 F1 100 156 T. 10 163 6 172 Accuracy 185 CFE- -SUM(Errors for all periods) Avg Error AVErrors for all periods) MAD -AVGErrors for all periods) MAPE -AVGITERRORI/A for all periods) 100% Ft 130 2 3 4 5 7 8 10 15 20 cate Production Plannines inte 8.000 Agregate Production Planning Mete: Highlighted information are given. 1. Develop an opregte production plan using a constant workforce that minimizes total cost without shortage 2. Calculate the total cost Requirements: Beginning Condition 1. No shortage wewed units 2. Use the level strategy Beg wwers 270 workers 1. Decision rate of Worters Output Rate 50 / 4. No hire or layoff during the planning period. Aggregate Production Plan Month jan Feb Mar * April June Total ITEU Shipment forecast DESCRIPTION FORMULA 17.000 18.000 16.000 10.000 8.000 Shiman Forever Arte Production Plan A Proof workers op rate/work/month Output Plan Outle Shipments Shipments water of total quantity wallable, demand forecast where total quantity walable - Elof previous month + AP quantity Ending inventory (10) inventato quantity waatleshipment Input Pin Input of Workers of Workers adeckion variable Hires Layoffs of workers of current month of workers of previous month, of workers increases worden of previous month of workers of current month, of warten decreases Total Cout Unicou ST Inventory 1 Anime Hiring con La Cost COM Intermediate Clean Determining the minimum of workers required 1 6 Curve Demand 2.000 26.000 1.000.000 70,000 78.000 A Demand/Month 9.000 Highest 15.000 15.000 14.000 11.000 Ware 300 ure is to develop the Production Man MacBook Pro