Part 2: Forecasting - (Modified from Q13.1) The monthly sales of the past 20 months are shown below: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sales 179 168 177 144 168 147 135 168 10 153 186 15 16 17 19 Month Sales 11 120 12 111 13 123 14 102 18 78 20 66 88 94 95 72 a. (6%) Use a 4-period (m=4) Moving Average to forecast the sales of f(21). Keep at least two decimal places in your answer. b. (6%) Based on the existing data, what is the MSD of the 4-period (m=4) Moving Average? [Note: Use only the periods 5 to 20, where both A(t) and f(t) can both be found. Keep at least two decimal places in your answer.] c. (6%) Use Exponential Smoothing with a = 0.3 to forecast the sales of f(21). [Note: Use F(1)=A(1) to initiate the model. Keep at least two decimal places in your answer.] d. (6%) Use Exponential Smoothing with a = 0.3 to forecast the sales of f(22). Keep at least two decimal places in your answer. . (7%) Based on the existing data, what is the MSD of Exponential Smoothing with a = 0.3? [Note: Use only the periods 2 to 20, where both A(t) and f(t) can both be found. Keep at least two decimal places in your answer.] f. (7%) Find the a that minimizes the MSD of the Exponential Smoothing result of this data set. [Note: Keep at least three decimal places in your answer.] g. (7%) Use Exponential Smoothing with Trend with a = 0.2 and B = 0.3 to forecast the sales of f(21). [Note: Use F(1)=A(1) and T(1)=0 to initialize the model. Keep at least two decimal places in your answer.] h. (7%) Use Exponential Smoothing with Trend with a = 0.2 and = 0.3 to forecast the sales of f(22). Keep at least two decimal places in your answer. i. (7%) Based on the existing data, what is the MSD of Exponential Smoothing with Trend with a = 0.2 and B = 0.32 [Note: Use f(t) from period 3 to 20. Choose the nearest number.] Around 250 b. Around 300 Around 350 d. Around 400 Around 500 a. c. e. Part 2: Forecasting - (Modified from Q13.1) The monthly sales of the past 20 months are shown below: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sales 179 168 177 144 168 147 135 168 10 153 186 15 16 17 19 Month Sales 11 120 12 111 13 123 14 102 18 78 20 66 88 94 95 72 a. (6%) Use a 4-period (m=4) Moving Average to forecast the sales of f(21). Keep at least two decimal places in your answer. b. (6%) Based on the existing data, what is the MSD of the 4-period (m=4) Moving Average? [Note: Use only the periods 5 to 20, where both A(t) and f(t) can both be found. Keep at least two decimal places in your answer.] c. (6%) Use Exponential Smoothing with a = 0.3 to forecast the sales of f(21). [Note: Use F(1)=A(1) to initiate the model. Keep at least two decimal places in your answer.] d. (6%) Use Exponential Smoothing with a = 0.3 to forecast the sales of f(22). Keep at least two decimal places in your answer. . (7%) Based on the existing data, what is the MSD of Exponential Smoothing with a = 0.3? [Note: Use only the periods 2 to 20, where both A(t) and f(t) can both be found. Keep at least two decimal places in your answer.] f. (7%) Find the a that minimizes the MSD of the Exponential Smoothing result of this data set. [Note: Keep at least three decimal places in your answer.] g. (7%) Use Exponential Smoothing with Trend with a = 0.2 and B = 0.3 to forecast the sales of f(21). [Note: Use F(1)=A(1) and T(1)=0 to initialize the model. Keep at least two decimal places in your answer.] h. (7%) Use Exponential Smoothing with Trend with a = 0.2 and = 0.3 to forecast the sales of f(22). Keep at least two decimal places in your answer. i. (7%) Based on the existing data, what is the MSD of Exponential Smoothing with Trend with a = 0.2 and B = 0.32 [Note: Use f(t) from period 3 to 20. Choose the nearest number.] Around 250 b. Around 300 Around 350 d. Around 400 Around 500 a. c. e