Part 3 (40 points):

In Part 3, you will use your answers from parts 1 and two 2 to summarize your findings and provide recommendations based on analytic interpretation of data and facts.

Question 3a (10 points):

For the following, keep your answer to less than 150 words. In terms of how you used each model, what was the difference in using Exponential Smoothing verses Linear Regression in assessing causation from the data and model calculations? In other words, what assessment information did each model provide you that the other did not?

Answer:

Exponential Smoothing gives more weight to the recent data and less weight on the older data. It is also a good method to use because you can continuously revise the forecast as new data becomes available.

Bias tells you if you are over estimating or over estimating.

As exponential smoothing method is bit same as moving average method, the only change is that it gives weight to the recent observation and allocates a smaller weight to the next progression towards the older data point. It has alpha in its formula and this alpha defines the stability of the process.Whereas,Harry used 0.1 alpha because he stated that the conditions will remain stable and he will get the MAD of 249, and it is ranked forth according to its data accuracy.

Increasing the alpha value represents that the recent vales are given higher weights as compared to previous values in the time series data set. The variability in the output is high, because the response towards the conditions is fast, which creates high variability in the results, and in the accuracy table; this method is ranked on first position.

Question 3b (10 points): For the following, keep your answer to less than 150 words. Given the accuracy, percent error, and bias, which model provides the best forecast for period 19 and why?

Answer:

Question 3c (5 points): What is your forecast for period 19? Provide justification and/or rationale in terms of facts and keep your answer to less than 200 words..

Call Volume Forecast for period 19 (My forecast): _________________

Explanation and Justification of Your Forecast Method:

3d Summary (15 points): Provide process and/or method recommendations to allow Mark to provide the most accurate month-to-month forecast. Respond in terms of what he should do and what methods he should use. Keep your descriptive answer to 500 words or less below.

Model for Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method Model for Linear Regression Method Model for Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method Model for Linear Regression Method