Part $4-$ Using the following modified Payoff Table create a graph of projected costs versus the probability

that the economy is in an expansion $($use proper formatting, labeling, and titles $$ see MBE $3).$ Find the

equation for EVwPI and the value of EVPI at p$($Expansion$)=12\mathrm{.}5\%,$ find the indifference points between

$$Out$-$source$$ & $$Local$$ and $$Local$$ & $$Central$.$ Identify which options can be eliminated from the decision$-$

making process.

Modified Payoff Table

Recession Expansion

p$($Expansion$)01$

Out$-$Source $$500,000\mathrm{.}00$ $$4,000,000\mathrm{.}00$

Home Kitchen Bakery $$3,250,000\mathrm{.}00$ $$250,000\mathrm{.}00$

Local Bakeries $$2,500,000\mathrm{.}00$ $$6,000,000\mathrm{.}00$

Central Bakery $-$$$3,500,000\mathrm{.}00$ $$5,500,000\mathrm{.}00$

Local $+$ Central Bakeries $-$$$9,000,000\mathrm{.}00$ $$9,000,000\mathrm{.}00$