Question: Peter wants to make a demand forecast based on the exponential smoothing method. To choose a good smoothing factor , he checks the demand in

  1. Peter wants to make a demand forecast based on the exponential smoothing method. To choose a good smoothing factor , he checks the demand in the previous three days (Day 1 to Day 3):

    Day 1 2 3
    Demand 98 103 101

    The forecasted demand on Day 1 is 100. Which of the following leads to the smallest mean absolute error to forecast the demand from Day 1 to Day 3?

    = 0.4

    = 0.8

    = 0.2

    = 0.6

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