PLEASE ANSWER $1-6!$ Attached photos show all info.

Napa Valley Winery has sought your expertise to help them compare forecasted sales using a regression trendline approach and

exponential smoothing. They face a very pronounced seasonal effect in their sales from year to year, which complicates the

forecast. In the figure below we can see sales across years $2008$ through $2015.$ This is data pulled from their archival sales database

for testing purposes. The data can be access in the corresponding file $($Sales$.$xlsx$).$ Develop a linear regression trendline for the data provided from $(2008-2015).$ What is the regression equation?

Use the regression equation from question $1$ to obtain forecasted sales $(F_T)$ for Jan $2015-$Dec $2015($i$.$e$.$ months $85-96).$ Insert

your forecasted sales in the "Regress Sale Forecast $(F_T)"$ column in the Table $1$ below. Next, calculate the forecast errors for

Jan $2015-$Dec $2015($i$.$e$.$ months $85-96).$ Insert your forecast error values in the "Forecast Error $($FE $E_T"$ column in Table below.

For your answer, provide a copy of Table $1$ with your answers inserted in the requested cells.

Table $1$: $2015$ Sales Data and Regression Forecast

Use the data obtained in Table $1$ to calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$)$ for $2015$ when using your

regression equation to forecast sales. You must show your work for credit.

Use exponential smoothing with an alpha value of $=0\mathrm{.}50$ to obtain forecasted sales $(F_T)$ for Jan $2015-$Dec $2015($i$.$e$.$ months

$85-96).$ Note that you will need the Actual Sales $(A_T)$ from Dec $2014($i$.$e month $84)$ and a forecast from month $84($use the

Na$$ve Method$)$ to get the first exponential smoothing forecast. These values can be obtained from the data file provided.

Insert your forecasted sales in the "Exponential Smoothing Sales Forecast $(F_T)"$ column in the Table $2$ below. Next, calculate

the forecast errors for Jan $2015-$Dec $2015($i$.$e$.$ months $85-96).$ Insert your forecast error values in the "Forecast Error $(F{E}_T)"$

column in Table below. For your answer, provide a copy of Table $2$ with your answers inserted in the requested cells.

Table $2$: $2015$ Sales Data and Exponential Smoothing Forecast Use the data obtained in Table $2$ to calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$)$ for $2015$ when using the

Exponential Smoothing method to forecast sales. You must show your work for credit.

Which method would you recommend for Napa Valley Winery to use to forecast their sales moving forward? Justify your

answer with a detailed explanation, making sure to also discuss any potential differences in the Mean Absolute Percentage

Errors between the two methods. Please address the questions on the proceeding

page for them in your written response.