PLEASE ANSWER QUESTION D

Question 1: The monthly sales for Telco Batteries, Inc. in a given year were as follows:

Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Demand	46	47	50	49	50	48	51	49	52	53	52	54

a. Forecast next year January sales using each of the following methods:

i. Naive method

ii. A four-month moving average

iii. A five-month weighted moving average using the weights 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, and 0.4 (the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months).

iv. Exponential smoothing using an =0.2 and a September forecast of 50.

b. Show the plot of the monthly sales data on excel. What demand pattern do you see in the plot?

c. Forecast next year January sales using the following methods:

i. Linear regression (You can use excel to get slope and intercept)

ii. Trend adjusted exponential smoothing model. Use = 0.2, = 0.3 for the month September stationary component is 50 and trend is 1.5

d. Forecast next year February sales using each of the following methods:

i. Naive method

ii. A four-month moving average

iii. A five-month weighted moving average using the weights 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, and 0.4 (the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months).

iv. Exponential smoothing using an =0.2 and a September forecast of 50.